Next James Bond Odds: 35+ Options for the New 007

Odds James Bond Actor

/ 21 min

Our team at CasinoAlpha has looked into the next James Bond actor odds all possible candidates currently in the run. Here is what we found.

Next James Bond actor odds table

Eligible actors Avg. next Bond odds Implicit probability Current trend
Regé-Jean Page 2.951 33.89%
Henry Cavill 4.55 21.98%
Aidan Turner 20 5% ↘↘
Tom Hardy 7.396 13.52%
Idris Elba 9.709 10.30%
Michael Fassbender 8.503 11.76%
Cillian Murphy 15.823 6.32%
James Norton 8.326 12.01%
Richard Madden 9.328 10.72%
Tom Hopper 20 5%
Lashana Lynch 14.286 7%
Douglas Booth 11.001 9.09%
Jamie Dornan 13.004 7.69%
Sam Heughan 17.007 5.88%
Tom Holland 14.999 6.67%
Luke Evans 19.011 5.26%
Jamie Bell 19.011 5.26%
Tom Hiddleston 21.008 4.76%
Suranne Jones 21.008 4.76%
Chiwetel Ejiofor 21.008 4.76%
Henry Golding 20 5%
Mahershala Ali 25 4%
Callum Turriner 20 5%
Riz Ahmed 16 6.25%
Luke Pasqualino 25 4%
T’Nia Miller 25 4%
Charlie Hunnam 33.003 3.03%
Daniel Kaluuya 33.003 3.03%
Harry Styles 33.003 3.03%

Next James Bond actor odds across time

Daniel Craig has been booted out of MI6. The discussion around the next artist to play 007 in the upcoming feature film has been raging on.

This is how public and expert opinions on the future of the famous film franchise and its protagonist have developed across time.

Subject to change (and update)

Discussing the next 007 odds is not a closed case. The film industry is infamous for unexpected turns and decisions. We are only presenting the facts as they are at the time of publishing. Nonetheless, in case of new events and revelations, our data will change accordingly.

Likeliest James Bond Actor Odds

Likeliest James Bond Actor Odds

The next James Bond actor, odds have shifted radically only within a few months, with Idris Elba, who held an uncontested first spot, falling into irrelevancy as of now.

The variation in the next 007 odds across time greatly varied incomparably to other events and wagers. If, during the earliest period observable, one actor dominated the shortlist with a net majority of chances, the best bet out there.

Volatility

Betting on such events can prove risky, especially for choosing an actor for a role where past statistics cannot inform your decision. However, volatility also creates a higher payout. No matter your decision, proceed with caution and in full knowledge of the implications.

Latest next Bond odds for runners up

Latest next Bond odds for runners up

There are only six contestants among the less-followed options that exceed the last two actors considered options since late 2021.

Judging by the probabilities currently featured, these actors may soon join the discussion as likely contenders for well-established stars.

Less considered options with good next Bond odds

  1. Douglas Booth
  2. James Dornan
  3. Tom Holland
  4. Sam Heughan
  5. Luke Evans
  6. Jamie Bell

How did we arrive at the next Bond odds?

Events that imply the human element are hard to calculate with total certainty. Fortunately, we had a priceless resource at hand.

Betting sites formulate their own odd figures for their customers. Naturally, these are not in themselves certain, nor are they exact.

Bet margin deviations

Games like those featured on roulette or blackjack sites have a built-in advantage for the operator – the house edge. Slots sites have the return to player rate.

However, betting sites proceed differently. Operators will aim to calculate the probabilities for event outcomes as precisely as possible. Then, they will slightly offset both sides by a small margin. Thus, no matter the result of an event, the operator will generate marginal profit.

Reverse engineering

When calculating the next 007 odds, we go down the opposite way.

We take the published odds from our database of casinos and then convert them to probabilities. Having several values for the same event also allows us to minimise errors and the operator’s margin.

Next James Bond odds: an in-depth look

From the time-dependent evolution for the next James Bond actor odds, you should see that trends can swing quickly in any direction.

We will take a deeper dive into the career of each contestant. You will see why the mentioned actors were shortlisted for the role, their driving force, and how their chances may evolve in the future. You should only place your bets, either proverbially or in online casinos, once you thoroughly understand why each choice may be viable.

Shortlist for next James Bond: First 15

1. Regé-Jean Page

Regé Jean Page
Source: hollywoodreporter.com

Regé-Jean Page first came into the limelight with his breakout performance as Simon Basset, the Duke of Hastings, in the Emmy-nominated Netflix drama ‘Bridgeton’.

Bridgeton trailer featuring Regé-Jean Page

Previous to this role, he also had notable performances in the 2016 ‘Roots’ as Chicken George and in the ‘For the People’ series, where he played Leonard Knox. He also notably starred in ‘Sylvie’s Love’ as Chico Sweetney.

More importantly for the 007 franchise, Regé-Jean Page may indicate a change in tune and tone, him being one of the proposed POC actors to play the starring role. He is a likely contestant, especially since he will not appear in the second season of ‘Bridgeton’.

Regé-Jean Page on Variety’s Q&A

Next James Bond actor odds

Current probability 33.89%
Historically highest next Bond odds 34.78%
When did the odds reach the maximum 1 April 2022
Is he likely to be chosen Very likely

2. Henry Cavill

Henry Cavill
Source: the-talks.com

According to the most recent statistics, Henry Cavill is the mainstream runner up and the only real contender to Regé-Jean Page for the role.

Cavill is not at his first run-in with espionage films. Although, nowadays, he is widely known for his role as Clark Kent/Superman in ‘Man of Steel’, ‘Batman v Superman’ and ‘Justice League’. He starred as Bondesque Napoleon Solo in the iconic ‘The Man from U.N.C.L.E.’ directed by Guy Ritchie.

Cavill, in maybe the best scene of the movie

Henry Cavill Bond chances

Current Henry Cavill odds 21.98%
Historically highest next Bond odds 33.33%
When was he the likeliest Around 20 March 2022
Is he likely to be picked Likely

3. Aidan Turner

Aidan Turner
Source: hellomagazine.com

Aidan Turner is an Irish actor who starred as Ross Poldark in the BBC’s adaptation of ‘The Poldark Novels’ and had roles in ‘Desperate Romantics’, ‘The Clinic’, ‘Being Human, and ‘The Hobbit’.

His first starring role was in the 2008 Irish thriller ‘Alarm’ directed by Gerard Stembridge. Although his chances were pretty high, Aidan Turner started working on ‘The Way of the Wind’ directed by Terrence Malik, which brought down his stats to an unlikely 5%.

Choice statistics for Aidan Turner

Current probability to be chosen 5%
Historically highest next Bond odds 14.29%
When was Turner likeliest to win Before April 2022
Is he likely to be picked Not likely

4. Tom Hardy

Tom Hardy
Source: cheatsheet.com

Hardy, of ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’, ‘Locke’, or ‘Dark Knight Rises’ fame was also a name thrown around for the next 007.

Unfortunately, his fall in eligibility for the role coincided with Page’s upswing, so we may consider the two to be intertwined.

Hardy’s next James Bond actor odds

Current Tom Hardy chances 13.52%
Historically highest next Bond odds 20%
When was he the likeliest 28 February 2022
Will he be the one Not likely

5. Idris Elba

Idris Elba
Source: fashionista.com

Elba initially was the likeliest candidate for Bond’s role. However, he has admitted already since October 2021 that he will not play the next 007.

Since the probability that Idris Elba will be 007 appropriately plummeted. You may wonder why he is still on the list. The situation is not as clear-cut, with Elba admitting that he would take up the role in the future when pressed on it.

Idris Elba’s current next Bond odds

Idris Elba James Bond chances 10.30%
Historically highest next Bond odds 52.16%
When was he the likeliest 10 December 2021
Will he be picked now Highly unlikely

6. Michael Fassbender

Michael Fassbender
Source: slashfilm.com

Magneto probably won’t be James Bond as Fassbender’s next James Bond actor odds fell to a marginal 11.11% since 28 February 2022, when he joined the discussion.

Michael Fassbender’s next James Bond odds

Current chances 11.76%
Historically highest next Bond odds 20%
When was he the likeliest 28 February 2022
Will he be picked now Improbable

7. Cillian Murphy

Cillian Murphy
Source: hollywoodreporter.com

Irish actor and lead singer of rock band The Sons of Mr Green Genes, Cillian Murphy, moved from indie darling to mainstream success with his parts in the Dark Knight franchise and already emblematic lead role in the ‘Peaky Blinders’ series.

There was a chance that he may add Bond to his catalogue, but, given his odds, it may be improbable by now.

Cillian Murphy’s next 007 odds

Current next James Bond odds 6.32%
Historically highest next Bond odds 6.67%
When was Murphy the likeliest Around April 2022
Is he likely to be chosen now Probably not

8. James Norton

James Norton
Source: hellomagazine.com

Norton played in ‘War & Peace’, ‘Grantchester’, ‘McMafia’, and notably ‘Happy Valley’, the latter earning him a nomination for Best Supporting Actor at the British Academy Television Awards.

His name has been floating around as a candidate, granted an unlikely one. As of now, his next 007 odds have fallen into irrelevancy.

Norton’s current and past chances

Current probability 12.01%
Historically highest next Bond odds 15.38%
When was he a likely candidate 30 December 2021
Is he likely to be chosen now No

9. Richard Madden

Richard Madden
Source: monitoruldevrancea.ro

The Scottish theatre and film actor that portrayed Romeo during his ‘Shakespeare’s Globe’ tour gained fame for playing Robb Stark in ‘Game of Thrones’.

Madden once was the likeliest next James Bond, odds being considered. However, he was among the first to fall out of grace and be outclassed by the current favourites.

Madden’s current and best next 007 odds

Current chances 10.72%
Historically highest next Bond odds 25%
When was he a likely candidate 10 December 2021
Is he likely to be chosen now No

10. Tom Hopper

Tom Hopper
Source: people.com

Thomas Edward Hopper is a prolific series actor with notable appearances in cult classics.

Tom Hopper’s notable series roles

  • Doctor Who, as Jeff (episodic role)
  • Merlin, as Sir Percival (guest & recurring roles)
  • Black Sails, as Billy Bones (leading role)
  • Game of Thrones, as Dickon Tarly (episodic role)
  • The Umbrella Academy, as Luther Hargreeves (leading role)

His film career has never been comparable, and Bond’s portrayal could have been his big-screen breakthrough. However, Hopper’s chances were always in the lower echelon, with his current figures being at an all-time low.

Hopper’s next 007 odds

Current probability 5%
Historically highest next Bond odds 9.09%
When was he a likely candidate 30 December 2021
Is he likely to be chosen now No

11. Lashana Lynch

Lashana Lynch
Source: indianexpress.com

Lashana Lynch may be the most exciting choice on the list, despite her current chances being on the downswing.

She is the only actress to have already been cast in the franchise, having played Nomi in ‘No Time to Die’. Judging by the current efforts to provide a more varied approach to the Bond films, both in direction and representation, we may see Lashana Lynch as the next 007 or even as the protagonist of her own spinoff.

Time will only tell. As of now, she is not exceptionally high up in the ranks. However, given her past performances and general appeal, you should keep a keen eye on her.

Next 007 odds for Lashana Lynch

Current 007 odds 7%
Historically highest next Bond odds 16.67%
When was he a likely candidate 21 December 2021
Is he likely to be chosen now Not very likely

12. Douglas Booth

Douglas Booth
Source: wallpapersden.com

Booth is among the younger options for the next Bond. His first artistic success was his performance as Boy George in ‘Worried About the Boy’, which aired on BBC 2.

His cinematographic endeavours have been considerably poorer, with appearances in critical and financial flops, like Aronofsky’s ‘Noah’ or The Wachowskis’ ‘Jupiter Ascending’. It looks like the upcoming Bond film will not be his breakthrough either. Douglas Booth is a relatively inexperienced actor, and he is going against seasoned artists with considerable star power.

Booth’s odd statistics

Current chances 9.09%
Historically highest next Bond odds Current
Is he likely to be chosen now Unlikely

13. Jamie Dornan

Jamie Dornan
Source: variety.com

With the mainstream popularity following his starring role as Christian Grey in the ‘Fifty Shades’ series, Dornan could have made a decent James Bond.

However, he failed to capitalise and is currently sidelined by better-established actors. Additionally, James Dornan is already working on a ‘Heart of Stone’ project, a spy thriller. Thus, he may be out of the picture for good.

Dornan’s next Bond odds

Current probability 7.69%
Historically highest next Bond odds Current
Is he likely to be chosen now No

14. Sam Heughan

Sam Heughan
Source: townandcountrymag.com

The Scottish actor’s closest claim to fame was his leading role in the ‘Outlander’ series on Starz TV.

As for his chances to be picked as protagonist, he is at the bottom of the list and very unlikely to be portray the famous spy in the upcoming Bond film, especially given the pressure of this choice.

Heughan’s next 007 odds

Current chances 5.88%
Historically highest next Bond odds Current
Is he likely to be chosen now No

15. Tom Holland

Tom Holland
Source: Indiewire.com

Tom Holland became a Hollywood star following his leading role performances in Marvel’s new ‘Spider-Man’ franchise and ‘Captain America: Civil War’.

Add to that his high-profile relationship with Zendaya, and you get a highly sought actor who can easily carry a project. However, a James Bond he cannot be, as of yet, at least, judging by his current stats.

Next 007 odds for Tom Holland

Tom Holland next James Bond likelihood 6.67 %
Historically highest next Bond odds Current
Is he likely to be chosen now No

Unlikely next Bond odds: 20 other options

Contestant Lowest-highest next 007 odds Most notable role in
Luke Evans 2.5%-5.26% Beauty and the Beast, as Gaston
Jamie Bell 2.5%-5.26% Billy Elliot, lead role
Tom Hiddleston 1.52%-4.76% The Avengers / Thor franchises, as Loki
Suranne Jones 3.03%-4.76% Doctor Foster: A Woman Scorned, lead role
Chiwetel Ejiofor 1.25%-4.76% 12 Years a Slave, lead role
Henry Golding 1.52%-5% Crazy Rich Asians, as Nick Young
Mahershala Ali 1.52%-4% True Detective, as Wayne Hayes / Moonlight, as Juan / House of Cards as Remy Danton
Callum Turriner 1.25%-5% War & Peace, as Kuragin
Riz Ahmed 1.52%-6.25% Sound of Metal, lead role
Luke Pasqualino 4% Snowpiercer, as Grey
T’Nia Miller 4% The Haunting of Bly Manor, as Hannah Grose
Charlie Hunnam 1.52%-3.03% Sons of Anarchy, lead role
Daniel Kaluuya 1.52%-3.03% Get Out, lead role / Judas and the Black Messiah, lead role
Harry Styles 1.52%-3.03% Dunkirk, as Alex
Kit Harrington 1.52%-2.50% Game of Thrones, as Jon Snow
Theo James 1.52%-6.67% Divergent franchise, as Four
Robert Pattinson 1% Twilight franchise, as Edward Cullen / Good Time as Connie Nikas / The Batman as Bruce Wayne/The Batman
Tom Bateman 1.25%-3.03% Murder on the Orient Express, as Bouc
Jude Law 1%-1.25% The Young Pope, as Sam / The Talented Mr Ripley, as Dickie Greenleaf / Closer, as Dan / Alfie, lead role
John Boyega 1%-2.5% Star Wars VII & VIII, as Finn

Less-likely next James Bond actor odds visualised

Less likely next James Bond actor odds visualised

Less likely next James Bond actor odds visualised 2

Ideal 007 according to James Bond odds

You have seen all the essential contestants for the lead role in the upcoming Bond film and their associated next 007 odds.

These statistics can also inform us regarding the nature of the ideal performer for the character. By considering all stated next James Bond odds, we can take an educated guess regarding the demographics of the future 007.

A woman to be the next James Bond, odds may indicate

Despite men still leading the charts, judging from the next 007 odds, it is the first time women performers have a fighting chance for the choice.

May perhaps indicate a change in direction for a historically male-centred series of films that has often been criticised for its portrayal of woman characters as damsels in distress, male gaze objects of desire, and generally flat and underdeveloped.

Male-female breakdown of the next James Bond odds

Male female breakdown of the next James Bond odds

What can we learn from the gender breakdown?

There are 32 male and only three female actors in the run with considerable odds. There are ten times more men in the run than there are women.

However, when we calculate the average probabilities for each gender, we get approximately 7.193% for men and 5.1733% for women. In comparison, the ratio of chances of women is much better when considering the smaller number.

POC actors may (finally) play the next Bond, odds say

POC actors remain the minority in the number of competitors for the lead role. However, where things are different are the next 007 odds.

20 POC actors may (finally) play the next Bond odds say

Naturally, things were considerably better a while ago, when Idris Elba was almost uncontested in the run.

However, the current options still include several varied actors of non-white descent with good chances to be chosen.

Heritage-dependent average probabilities in comparison

Heritage dependent average probabilities in comparison

Even though judging by the current odd figures, we may not see a female 007, the next Bond may finally be represented by and representative of persons of a different heritage than the usual Anglo-Saxon.

Fame plays a part in the next James Bond actor odds

Naturally, fame, star power, and popularity are the most decisive factors in choosing the next actor for the leading role.

Here, there is no variation. Literally, any person on the list with viable chances of being the final choice has already had a breakthrough, either on the big or small screens. The list is made up of recognisable faces with a well-established careers in British or American film industries.

Putting your money on the most renowned actor with the broadest appeal to the current public will be your best bet.

Who is the next James Bond, odds considered?

Regé-Jean Page has the best next James Bond actor odds in the current environment. He may simply be unbeatable, given Elba’s exit.

If all else fails, Henry Cavill should be your second-best guess. However, considering the current, quantifiable tendency to pick an actor of a different race or gender than before, you should still keep in mind contestants like Lashana Lynch.

Is it worth betting on the next James Bond?

The situation may not be as straightforward a bet as it was in late 2021, with Idris Elba’s next James Bond odds making him almost a sure guess.

You may still consider staking your funds on this bet. However, remember that picking an actor for the lead role of a cultural cornerstone like the Bond film series can prove highly volatile. You should consider finding and using casino bonuses for this intention. This approach will lower potential losses while still allowing you to participate in the process around this choice.

Tips

If you want to lower your expenses to a minimum, you should look for no deposit bonuses that you can use for betting. Our reviews will inform you where this is the case.

Next James Bond betting tips

  • Try finding new casinos that provide the possibility to bet on any of the likely candidates.
  • These platforms should also have stable and fair next 007 odds. Read casino reviews to find out about an operator’s fairness before registering.
  • Consider looking into the transaction policy of the online casinos you wish to bet on. You may not want to stake considerable funds in such a volatile event. Minimum deposit casinos are best in this case.
  • Always bet based on implicit probabilities and inform your decision by looking at historical trends. You should also become familiar with more complex procedures, like arb betting, among other systems.
  • If you are correct and receive a return on your guess, you will want to cash out your funds as fast as possible. Fast withdrawal casinos will guarantee the shortest waiting period.
  • Despite all the published data we provided, you should remember that betting will entail an element of chance and possible risks. Do not place bets higher than you can lose.

Methodology

Studying the underlying likelihoods for choosing the next star to portray James Bond implies the same strict and exact procedures we employ when assessing gambling platforms.

Thus, the starting elements for our analytical process are found in how we review any other aspect of the iGaming industry.

The study’s aim

We start by establishing the scope of our study. In this case, we provided the past and present James Bond actor odds for all the relevant contestants for the role. We further computed informative statistics regarding the expected winner using this comparative data.

Its framework, data, and limits

The framework of our article has the backing of a thorough understanding of the industry’s inner workings. Naturally, it is nigh impossible to calculate the probability of a decision so subjective and dependent on human elements, such as picking the next actor for the starring role in the upcoming Bond film. We provided an overview of the published probabilities and their development across time.

These form the horizon of our published study on the subject. The figures you have read are the closest we can get to guessing the future 007 without having access to insider knowledge.

Join the conversation

We wish to hear your opinion on the future of the James bond franchise and its eponymous protagonist. Which actor seems the likeliest to win? Do you have a favourite in the run? Tell us what you think by leaving a comment in the section below!

Author Francisc Csiki Author & Editor at Casino alpha
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