Odds of Completing the London Marathon Exceed 99% in 2022
There is a chance of over 99.17% that London Marathon runners will complete the race this year, new data shows.
To lessen the tension, the CasinoAlpha odds experts analysed London Marathon historical data from as early as 1981 to find the probability of crossing the finish line this year.
The highly-anticipated 26.2-mile race is set to take place on Sunday, 2 October 2022.
What are the chances that participants will complete the London Marathon in 2022?
It was found that participants have an over 99.17% chance of completing the London Marathon in 2022.
Since the beginnings of the London Marathon, there has been a steady yearly increase in the proportion of runners who finished the race.
The average London Marathon completion rates over each decade
- 1980’s: 92.30% completion rate
- 1990’s: 96.95% completion rate
- 2000’s: 98.38% completion rate
- 2010’s: 98.96% completion rate
There was a stark increase between the ’80s and ’90s, and the ’90s and ’00s, potentially correlating with societal perspectives on health and fitness.
The most recent completion rates
2021 and 2020 were excluded from the calculations due to the pandemic. 2019’s completion rate was 99.17%.
Based on the evolution of completion percentages over time, experts at CasinoAlpha forecast that the upward trend will continue this year.
Does the weather impact performance in the London Marathon?
Yes. Experts at CasinoAlpha analysed the weather conditions to see how they impacted completion rates.
We analysed weather data from 2000 onwards (when this data was first recorded).
Our research on London Marathon weather conditions
- When temperatures exceeded 20 degrees Celsius, there was a notable drop in the completion rate;
- This suggests that hot weather is unfavourable for participants;
- In comparison, when temperatures dropped below 15 Celsius degrees, participants performed slightly better;
- The best completion rates were registered when the temperature was 10 degrees Celsius.
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The basis of CasinoAlpha's analysis
Here are the statements from CasinoAlpha’s CEO:
“We wanted to see how the runners may fare in this year’s race, so we analysed all historical London Marathon data from 1981 to 2019. Since the event was strongly impacted by the pandemic in the past two years, we imagine those preparing for the run may feel nervous about not having competed properly in a long time – or potentially never before!”
“We hope that the findings are of great comfort to participants in the 2022 London Marathon, as the odds that they will complete the race exceed 99%! We wish them much success and hope our research gives them a confidence boost before the run.”
More about Tudor Turiceanu, CEO of CasinoAlpha
Tudor Turiceanu is the Founder and CEO of CasinoAlpha, the UK’s leading provider of independent casino reviews. The idea of the present analysis came from him, blooming into an odds report that is similar to other in-house projects.
How CasinoAlpha conducted the analysis
- Data was taken from all London Marathon races on record;
- We excluded 2020 and 2021, which had virtual entries due to the pandemic, and were considered anomalies;
- Data was taken from the official London Marathon website, which can be found on Wikipedia. The context is available at the Marathon’s official page.
- Data on the run temperatures has been registered since 2000 and was included in the research;
- Our experts discussed and summarized all the mentioned data to uncover the odds of participants completing the London Marathon this year.
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