Our editorial team has conducted a new study that reveals the biggest underperformers of Euro 2024 based on the difference between their xG and actual goals scored. For some players, the tournament wasn’t so kind.
- Top xG Underperformers of Euro 2024
- How We Conducted the Study
- Cristiano Ronaldo is the biggest xG underperformer of Euro 2024
- CasinoAlpha’s Study Findings on Euro2024 Underperformers
- Key Takeaways on Euro 2024 Player Expectations
Top xG Underperformers of Euro 2024
| Rank | Player | xG | Goals Scored | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cristiano Ronaldo | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| 2 | Kai Havertz | 4.1 | 2 | -2.1 |
| 3 | Antoine Griezmann | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 4 | Kylian Mbappé | 2.9 | 1 | -1.9 |
| 5 | Romelu Lukaku | 1.7 | 0 | -1.7 |
| 6 | Diogo Jota | 1.3 | 0 | -1.3 |
| 7 | Aleksandar Mitrović | 1.2 | 0 | -1.2 |
| 8 | Pedri | 1.1 | 0 | -1.1 |
| 8 tied | Bruno Petković | 1.1 | 0 | -1.1 |
| 9 | Memphis Depay | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| 9 tied | Bernard Kocku | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 9 tied | Andraž Šporar | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 10 | Benjamin Šeško | 0.9 | 0 | -0.9 |
| 11 | Christoph Baumgartner | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| 11 tied | Ante Budimir | 0.8 | 0 | -0.8 |
| 11 tied | Lamine Yamal | 1.8 | 1 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Marko Arnautović | 1.7 | 1 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Dan NDoye | 1.6 | 1 | -0.6 |
| 14 | Álvaro Morata | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 14 tied | Patrik Schick | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 15 | Kerem Akturkoglu | 1.4 | 1 | -0.4 |
| 16 | Christian Eriksen | 1.3 | 1 | -0.3 |
| 16 tied | Luka Modrić | 1.3 | 1 | -0.3 |
| 16 tied | Dániel Gazdag | 1.3 | 1 | -0.3 |
| 17 | Bruno Fernandes | 1.2 | 1 | -0.2 |
| 18 | João Cancelo | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| 18 tied | Denis Dragus | 1.1 | 1 | -0.1 |
| 18 tied | Breel Embolo | 2.1 | 2 | -0.1 |
| 19 | Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 tied | Robert Lewandowski | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 tied | Mikel Oyarzabal | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Kevin De Bruyne | 0.9 | 1 | 0.1 |
| 20 tied | Michael Gregoritsch | 0.9 | 1 | 0.1 |
| 20 tied | Harry Kane | 2.9 | 3 | 0.1 |
| 20 tied | Marcel Sabitzer | 0.9 | 1 | 0.1 |
| 20 tied | Donyell Malen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.1 |
| 21 | İlkay Gündoğan | 0.8 | 1 | 0.2 |
| 21 tied | Randal Kolo Muani | 0.8 | 1 | 0.2 |
| 22 | Fabian Ruiz | 1.7 | 2 | 0.3 |
| 24 | Georges Mikautadze | 2.3 | 3 | 0.7 |
| 25 | Niclas Füllkrug | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 25 tied | Nico Williams | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 26 | Mateo Kovačić | 0.9 | 2 | 1.1 |
| 27 | Dani Olmo | 1.7 | 3 | 1.3 |
| 28 | Cody Gakpo | 1.1 | 3 | 1.9 |
| 29 | Jamal Musiala | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 29 tied | Ivan Schranz | 1 | 3 | 2 |
Euro 2024 saw its fair share of breathtaking goals and clinical finishes, from Jude Bellingham’s stunning overhead kick in the dying moments against Slovakia, to Lamine Yamal’s long-range wondergoal vs France.
How We Conducted the Study
xG (Expected Goals) measures the quality of a shot in football, showing how likely it is to be a goal based on similar shots in the past. It can offer a revealing glimpse into those who were unlucky and those who performed well under expectation.
Our editorial team has gathered a list of all players at Euro 2024 who had an xG of 0.8 or more.
We then ranked these players based on the difference between their actual goals scores versus their xG.
Those with the biggest difference between their goals scored and their xG placed the highest in our ranking, as they underperformed the most.
Cristiano Ronaldo is the biggest xG underperformer of Euro 2024
His xG was expected to be 3.6, yet he scored 0 goals.
During our research, we have found that Ronaldo squandered several opportunities throughout the tournament, including a glaring one-on-one against France in the quarterfinals that could have changed the course of the match, as well as several free-kicks in promising positions.
His missed penalty against Slovenia in the Round of 16 proved particularly costly, ultimately contributing to Portugal’s early exit.
It was a tournament to forget for football icon Cristiano Ronaldo, leaving fans and pundits questioning whether age is finally catching up with the legendary forward.
CasinoAlpha’s Study Findings on Euro2024 Underperformers
Here are the other players who ranked in the top 10 underperformers, along with the rundown of their hits and misses.
Ranking second in our list is Kai Havertz, with an xG of 4.1 and 2 goals scored
Straight off the back of a brilliant debut season for Arsenal, Kai Havertz had a relatively underwhelming Euro 2024 campaign.
Despite flashes of brilliance, he struggled to consistently impact games in front of goal.
Most notably, Havertz missed a golden opportunity to put Germany ahead in their crucial group stage match against the Netherlands, skying his shot over the bar from close range.
Placing third in our ranking is Antoine Griezmann, with an xG of 2 and 0 goals scored
Overall, we can say that Griezmann had a decent tournament.
He orchestrated many of France’s attacking moves and provided crucial assists, although his finishing in front of goal was uncharacteristically lacking.
In the group stage encounter against Hungary, Griezmann missed a clear opportunity to seal the victory, firing his shot wide from inside the penalty area.
Kylian Mbappe ranks fourth in our top, with an xG of 2.9 and 1 goal scored
It’s worth noting that Mbappé suffered a broken nose during the opening match against Austria, which may well have hindered his performance.
The French superstar appeared hesitant throughout the tournament in front of goal, often opting to pass or dribble instead of taking a shot.
He missed a crucial chance in the semi-final against Spain, blazing his shot over the bar when one-on-one with the goalkeeper.
Ranking fifth in our list is Romelu Lukaku, with an xG of 1.7 and 0 goals scored
Lukaku’s Euro 2024 campaign was marred by a series of unfortunate events, leaving him with zero goals despite numerous attempts.
He actually managed to find the back of the net on several occasions, but VAR cruelly denied him each time, ruling out his goals for marginal offsides or handballs in the build-up.
This string of bad luck seemed to affect his confidence, as he missed a crucial opportunity in Belgium’s final group stage match against Ukraine, hitting the post from close range when a goal would have secured their progression to the knockout stages.
Placing sixth is Diogo Jota, with an xG of 1.3 and 0 goals scored
Jota faced a frustrating Euro 2024 campaign, most notably coming off the bench against Slovenia and failing to capitalise on two incredible opportunities to secure victory for his team in extra time, sending his shots agonisingly wide of the target.
Alexandar Mitrović ranks seventh, with an xG of 1.2 and 0 goals scored
Serbia’s star man, Aleksandar Mitrović, failed to live up to his reputation at Euro 2024, squandering several promising chances throughout the group stage.
In Serbia’s must-win match against Denmark, Mitrović missed an excellent opportunity to secure his team’s progression, heading the ball wide from close range in the dying minutes, leaving Serbia with a solitary point and an early exit from the competition.
Placing eighth are Pedri and Bruno Petković, with an xG of 1.1 and 0 goals scored
Despite having the proverbial last laugh as Spain went on to lift the trophy, Pedri’s finishing left much to be desired throughout the tournament.
The midfield maestro showed glimpses of his technical prowess throughout the Euros but couldn’t break the deadlock in Spain’s opener against Sweden, with his tame effort from inside the penalty area being easily saved by the goalkeeper.
Croatia’s towering striker Bruno Petković struggled to convert his chances during all of Croatia’s matches at Euro 2024.
He had a penalty saved in the group stage clash against Spain, but VAR disallowed his rebound effort for an offside infringement in the build-up.
Ranking ninth are Memphis Depay, Bernard Kocku, and Andraž Šporar
Memphis Depay had an xG of 2, with 1 goal scored, while Kocku and Šporar had an xG of 1, with 0 goals scored.
Despite the Netherlands reaching the semi-final, Depay struggled to find his scoring touch at Euro 2024. He squandered several promising chances, most notably against Austria in the group stage, where his usually reliable finishing deserted him.
Albania’s young forward, Bernard Kocku, showed glimpses of potential but failed to make an impact in front of goal.
Kocku’s most notable miss came in the final group stage match against Switzerland, where he failed to convert a one-on-one.
Slovenia’s target man, Andraž Šporar, was unable to replicate his excellent club form on the international stage. He missed a crucial chance in the Round of 16 clash against Portugal, failing to connect with a cross that could have drawn Slovenia level.
Rounding off the top ten is Benjamin Šeško, with an xG of 0.9 and 0 goals scored.
Slovenia’s young star, Benjamin Šeško, was the subject of much transfer speculation before the tournament began, with many top clubs looking at signing the talented forward.
Unfortunately, Šeško struggled to showcase his obvious talents on the international stage, missing two golden opportunities to eliminate Portugal in the Round of 16.
Key Takeaways on Euro 2024 Player Expectations
We believe that Euro 2024 has highlighted the fine margins between success and disappointment in football.
While some strikers thrived under pressure, others, like Ronaldo, Havertz, and Mbappé, were left to rue missed opportunities that could have significantly altered their team’s fortunes.
Hence, we think this tournament serves as a reminder that even the most talented players can experience fluctuations in form, and that xG, while a useful metric, doesn’t always tell the full story.
