What are the Odds of England Winning the World Cup?
Casino Alpha’s World Cup 2022 Odds report reveals England’s chances of winning and presents you with the current landscape for markets like player props, tournament eliminations, top goal scorers and more.
The odds may shift depending on events outside anyone’s control, such as injuries. We will update our tables accordingly, but you shouldn’t take them as absolute values.
We’ll emphasise the selections which could turn out most profitably for you.
What are England’s Odds to Win the World Cup 2022?
|Rank||Casino||England’s Odds to Win the Cup||Odds converted||Implied probability|
Tips on where to bet
- England is the third favourite to win the trophy, behind France and Brazil
- PaddyPower, Betfair, Coral and 888sport currently have the best odds for England to win
- The top 4 casinos in our list provide you with a value bet opportunity at 13/2 if you think the probability of England winning is higher than 13.3%
We recommend placing your Qatar 2022 bets at Paddy Power as the casino grants UK players the best mobile betting experience and a wide range of pre-match and live selections
How Do England’s 13/2 odds of winning the World Cup translate into probabilities?
Bookies’ odds on England winning the cup vary, with an implied probability ranging from 13.3% to 15.4%.
13/2 means a 13.3% likelihood, while 11/2 translates to approximately 15%.
However, in reality, the matches are not played a hundred times but only once. Hence, the uncertainty factor always comes into play.
How to convert fractional odds into probabilities
With each fractional odd defined as x/y, we use the following formula to convert it into a probability:
- Probability = y / (x+y) x 100
Let’s say we want to convert England’s odds of 13/2.
In that case, y is 2, and x is 13.
So, the probability implied by 13/2 is 2/15 x 100= 0.33 x 100= 33%.
Betting Tips #1
If the odds change and you suspect the event might turn out differently from what you’ve envisioned initially, you can hedge your bet. In essence, that means betting in the opposite direction.
- To hedge an Over 2.5 wager, you’ll need to bet the Under 2.5 selection
- This type of hedging works best for parlays
- Say you have 4 out of 5 matches won on your bet slip, and the last match is hanging by a single goal
- In that case, it’s best to hedge your bet to cover the scenario in which that goal is not scored (Total Goals Under)
- If you adjust your stake, you have a chance to make a profit irrespective of the outcome
No matter how small, profits made by arbitrage betting will likely be cancelled by any casino.
If our reviews will inspire you to read the casinos’ Terms yourself, you’ll see that licensed operators in the UK tend to have strict rules against arbitrage and any other related sure-winning strategy.
More England World Cup Odds You Can Bet On at Paddy Power
|Selection||Odds||Odds converted||Implied Probability|
|England to win the Cup||13/2||7.5||13.3%|
|England to qualify from Group B||1/16||1.06||94.1%|
|England to win Group B||1/3||1.33||75%|
|England to reach the quarter finals||1/2||1.5||66.7%|
|England to reach the semi finals||6/4||2.5||40%|
|England to reach the final||3/1||4||25%|
Betting Tips #2
- England is facing a relatively easy group, and it seems UK bettors can quickly turn the 75% probability into a profit of 33% by betting on them passing through to the knock-out rounds
- In our view, England has a strong chance of reaching the quarter-finals, maybe higher than the 66.7% implied probability, which again might turn out to be a value bet
- Betting on England to reach the semi-finals is risky in our view because the knock-out stages are known for their unpredictability
Odds for England’s elimination from the tournament
Betting Tips #3
- Betting on England’s elimination is another way to predict the team’s course over the rounds
- However, you can see that, except for a group stage elimination, which would be shocking, any other knock-out stage outcome is almost equally likely
- That’s why, if you consider betting on these selections, it might be a good idea to pick at least 2 potential outcomes and place 2 different bets, maybe even at 2 other bookies, after you compare the odds
- It’s not rocket science: with 2 smart bets, say England reaching either the semi-finals or them losing the final, you cover almost 40% of all cases
- Beyond statistics, we can intuitively say that the team has the maturity not to be knocked out before the last eight
- Leave room for the classic World Cup whims and shockers: it might even be a complete underdog that wins it
Who is Favoured to Win the World Cup 2022?
UK bookies consider Brazil’s team the top contender to win the 2022 tournament. If they win, it would be their 6th title.
Top 3 World Cup 2022 Favourites Right Now
|1||Brazil||5/1 @ Betfair|
|2||France||11/2 @ Coral|
|3||England||13/2 @ Paddy Power|
Betting tips #4
- Remember that, as a punter, you want to beat the odds. Betting on the most likely outcome each time will not make you a sure winner
- Brazil is undoubtedly one of the best out there, but it’s not the team that dominated the late 90s and early 00s
- More simply, the favourites don’t always win. It has happened that a match with the favourite listed at 1/10 odds ends up in a draw or an underdog win
- France won the 2018 World Cup, which makes it unlikely that they will win it this time
- The only nations that won back-to-back trophies were Italy, in 1934 and 1938, and Brazil in 1958 and 1962
- As you can see, this happened during the stone age of football, when there were wider gaps between countries
- Modern football makes it improbable that France will win, and that’s confirmed by shocking recent results, for example, when they drew Bosnia at home in the qualifiers
- All these points make England’s 13/2 odds for winning in Qatar very attractive
Why do bookies favour Brazil?
- It probably boils down to a combination of factors, with sporting form and the team’s World Cup stats somewhere out there
- Brazil’s squad is worth just over £912 million. Comparatively, the second-favourite France values slightly more, around £950 million, while England’s squad is estimated at more than £1 billion
- Brazilian players belong to world-class level teams, so their sporting form should technically be positive
- However, accumulated fatigue from over the season may affect current form negatively
Betting Tips #5
The past doesn’t always speak of the present predictably. Don’t let stats alone dictate your betting decisions. You’ll never crunch the numbers as well as a computer, so why not try other ways to locate value for your bets?
One of the best ways to locate value outside following stats is by immersing yourself in the match you’re betting on and focusing on nothing else.
All-time World Cup Winners Ranking
- Victories are worth 3 points, draws 1 point and losses 0 points
- Draws in knock-out matches are technically not possible, but they were accounted for
- If a knock-out draw ended up in a penalty shoot-out, it was counted as a draw
- If a winner was settled in extra time, 3 points were awarded to the winner
Bookies use a similar system to create odds
Offline and online bookmakers scan past results and performances to determine their odds. Although a definitive ranking might not be part of their methodology, effects are accounted for similarly. They look at past results and create averages reflected as numbers.
With each newly launched UK casino, software platforms have become more advanced. Consequently, oddsmakers become more sophisticated with their systems.
Finding a way to beat AI-generated odds might seem difficult in this context. Still, it will become more apparent if you follow our tips closely. You should disregard the bookmaker’s odds and train your intuition to see patterns in what happens on the field.
All-time World Cup Top Scoring Teams
|Team||Goals Scored||Goals Conceded||Goal Difference|
Betting Tips #6
- If you’re wagering on the Total Goals market, you may use the table as a reference and refine your selections
- Betting on goal totals will likely be profitable with these classic participants, but you shouldn’t leave out Belgium, the Netherlands, or other attacking-minded teams of the present
Suggested Goals Parlay for World Cup Matchday 1
Odds for All Teams to Win the World Cup 2022
|Team||Odds to Win the Cup||Converted Odds||Implied probability|
Betting Tips #7
- Use the odds to your advantage. You can work out how the teams compare in terms of skill since the odds encode their potential
- We displayed odds in both fractional and decimal formats to make it easier to calculate potential payouts. Multiply the decimal odds by your stake, and that will be your return should your pick be valid
- Any emotionally driven betting decision, say on an underdog winning the cup, will be crushed by a look at their odds
- At the same time, despite Brazil being hot favourites to win a 6th world championship, that’s not so certain because anything can happen in the knock-out stages
- Remember the last tournament when Croatia had a stunning underdog run to the final? They slew some giants in the process, including, well, England in the semi-finals
All World Cup 2022 Groups
|2022 Groups Draw||Group A||Group B||Group C||Group D||Group E||Group F||Group G||Group H|
|Team 2||Ecuador||Iran||Saudi Arabia||Denmark||Germany||Canada||Serbia||Ghana|
|Team 4||Netherlands||Wales||Poland||Australia/UAE/Peru||Costa Rica/New Zealand||Croatia||Cameroon||South Korea|
How many groups are there in the World Cup?
- The tournament brings together 32 teams to face each other in 8 groups of 4
- Group spots are decided after a qualifiers tournament held on each continent and organised by the relevant football federations
Knock-out rounds in a nutshell
- After the group matches, the best 2 teams from each group will advance further
- Each knock-out stage halves the teams still in the competition
- Winners of the last 16 will compete in the quarter-finals
- The semi-finals will decide the finalists between the last 4 participants
How are knock-out matches decided?
- Each knock-out match is played in a single fixture
- Group winners and runner-ups are mixed and matched and compete on 2 different paths toward the final
- 90-minute draws are still possible, but a knock-out scenario requires extra time and possibly penalties to decide who’s going through
Let’s say England wins its group. The team might play against Senegal, France or Belgium in that case.
However, if they’re only second, they might have to confront stronger teams like Argentina or Brazil.
The Golden Goal rule
You might have heard about a time when a match in extra time could be decided by scoring one goal: the golden goal.
This rule made knockout rounds tense and produced some exhilarating moments. It was known as the sudden death rule, because the match ended right after the goal was scored. It was put to an end in 2004.
Most thrilling sudden death match endings
Who Will Win Each World Cup Group?
- Group A: Netherlands (4/7 odds)
- Group B: England (1/3 odds)
- Group C: Argentina (4/9 odds)
- Group D: France (1/3 odds)
- Group E: Spain (5/6 odds)
- Group F: Belgium (1/2 odds)
- Group G: Brazil (2/5 odds)
- Group H: Portugal (4/7 odds)
In Group E, Germany and Spain have almost the same odds of winning the group. So, you shouldn’t trust your heart with this slight statistical difference. Maybe it would be a good idea to watch both teams’ first matches and decide after that.
Predicted England Starting 11 World Cup
England Starting Squad Odds
- UK online bookies allow you to bet on who will start in England’s matches
- Be aware that the odds for these matches may shift before kick-off (players can become injured in training
- Other notable bets on England’s squad include betting on the manager being sacked
- Paddy Power experts gave a 3/1 odd estimation for Southgate being fired in 2021, but that didn’t happen
- The same UK online casino and bookie has also provided a series of special bets, for instance, betting on whether Southgate will drop any more players due to behavioural issues
Who Will Start in England’s First Match in Qatar?
- England will play its first match on the 21st of November 2022 at 1 PM GMT against Iran
- Some UK bookies have already posted odds for who’s going to feature in England’s first match
Starting goalkeepers odds
|Goalkeepers||To start odds||Odds converted||Probability|
Betting Tips #8
- Pickford to start against Iran seems like a sure bet, as he’s become a regular starter under Southgate
- It takes a massive event for a manager to change the starting goalkeeper. An injury, discipline issues, or a red card could force him to do it
- Domestic leagues will have started by then, and who knows what may happen, so remember to come back and recheck the odds when the tournament’s kick-off date approaches
Best Pickford saves at the national team in 2021
Odds for England’s defenders
|Defenders||To start odds||Odds converted||Probability|
Betting Tips #9
- Harry Maguire is likely to start despite his poor performance during the season
- As all City, Liverpool and Chelsea fans can see, odds may be misleading in some cases
- England’s manager seems to count on Manchester United’s player, but the x1.3 potential payout doesn’t seem so attractive
- Liverpool’s Trent-Alexander Arnold might be used against Iran for his speed, and here we find a genuine value bet
- If you’ll pick England’s starting defenders, make sure you account for the manager’s formation choice beforehand
- For instance, Trent-Alexander Arnold might not play if Southgate chooses a system with a back three instead of a back four
Worst-case on-field scenarios featuring Harry Maguire
World Cup 2022 first team midfielders odds
|Midfielders||To start odds||Odds converted||Probability|
|Emile Smith Rowe||4/1||5||20%|
Betting Tips #10
- England’s midfield will be challenging to predict due to the very stiff competition in each role
- Unless for the unexpected, Declan Rice to start seems a sure bet since he’s been a regular appearance at the front of the defence
- Our suggestion here is making a double if your bookie allows it, combining Declan Rice’s odds with Chelsea’s Mason Mount to start for a 1/1 payout
Why is Declan Rice such a certain pick?
Who will be England’s starting striker odds
|Forwards||To start odds||Odds converted||Probability|
Betting Tips #11
- Southgate’s front three are expected to be Harry Kane, Phil Foden and Raheem Sterling
- 4-2-3-1 is the most probable formation. We don’t expect the manager to make any experiments in his first game
- Still, since the opponent is approachable, other names might appear on the squad list on the given day
- We think Bukayo Saka might have a chance to cover England’s right flank in attack against Iran
Remember to check your sportsbook of choice when the tournament is approaching. Not all bookies have posted player specials yet.
Harry Kane’s goals for England
More Odds for England’s First Match at the World Cup 2022
|England vs Iran||Odds||Odds converted|
|England to win||2/9||1.22|
|Iran to win||8/1||9|
|Over 2.5 Goals||10/11||1.91|
|Under 2.5 Goals||4/5||1.8|
|England & NGG||10/1||1.45|
Betting Tips #12
- We think England will win but not by many goals, maybe 1-0 or 2-0. Our picks are England and under 2.5 goals
- When handicap odds are posted, you should look for H-1.5, meaning England will win by at least 2 goals
- Or, if you think Iran’s defence will not be that easy to break, go with h+1.5, which translates into Iran not losing by more than one goal
- England and NGG seem like a good idea, too, as Iran’s attackers don’t seem so imposing
England Players’ Golden Boot Odds
|English striker||Golden Boot winner odds||Probability|
What is the golden boot?
The golden boot is a trophy awarded to the FIFA World Cup top scorer. Despite the tournament having a top scorer ranking from its very beginning, it was only in 1982 that the award was officially established.
Our Predictions for the World Cup 2022 Winner
|World Cup Winner Picks||England||Argentina||Germany|
|Where to find||Bet at Coral||Bet at Betfair||Bet at Paddy Power|
|Why pick||England is a one of the most well-rounded teams, although insecurities in defence will have to be fixed||Argentina has a Lionel Messi approaching the end of his career, hungry for a success||Germany will probably be the tournament’s goal scoring machine|
Don’t forget to bet responsibly!
- Decide your betting budget for the World Cup before you start wagering
- Place a limited number of bets and keep some funds for when the tournament starts
- Remember not to chase your losses, especially if you’re live betting
- Research your favourites constantly to inform your decisions better
- Refrain from placing emotionally-driven bets
- Take cool-off breaks between matches
- Don’t bet on everything in the bookies’ list, as it’s impossible to get them all respectable
- Configure your responsible gambling limits after your first account funding
We want to see your bets
Do our picks match best with your prognosis for England’s World Cup journey? Show us your bet slips in the comment section.